Posts Tagged ‘recession’
The Unemployed Are Running Out of Hope
The new face of joblessness
Today, the unemployed sector cuts through a very broad cross-section of the country. Since late 2007, some 8 million jobs have vanished, and the end is not yet in sight. The ranks of the unemployed have now swelled to nearly 16 million people.
In the past, recessions have mostly hit blue collar and low level retail jobs, and white collar layoffs accounted for about 30 percent of job losses. By contrast, the current recession has seen 50% of the lost jobs be from managerial, professional, and skilled white collar positions. Workers in the upper echelons that are scrambling for cash now, the current recession has changed the world overnight.
Who has been hardest hit?
Past recessions hit minorities the hardest, and this hasn’t changed. According to current Labor Department statistics, the nationwide unemployment rate in November was 10%, but joblessness among African-Americans, for example, was 15.5%. Interestingly enough, the unemployment rate for men is 11.9%, compared to 8.1% for women, the widest unemployment gender gap in more than half a century. Older workers are being laid off at a faster rate than younger workers.
Are unemployed people finding new jobs?
The unemployed are staying that way for unusually long stretches of time. Almost 25% of jobless people have been unemployed for over 6 months, the highest long term unemployment level since the Great Depression. That 25% long term unemployment figure doesn’t include “discouraged workers” – people who have given up, and those who have settled for part time work. In hard-hit regions of the country, long stretches of joblessness coincide with elevated suicide rates, mounting depression, and family conflicts.
But aren’t layoffs cyclical in a recession?
In most recessions, job losses are from temporary contractions from industries and bussines producing more goods and services than can be absorbed. Losses, therefore are cyclical in nature. Typically, businesses lay off employees until demand picks back up, and then start hiring again. The current economic downturn, however, is more foundational; that is, some industrial segments appear to have undergone permanent shrinkage – home construction, vehicle manufacturing, and newsprint publishing, for example.
New-home construction busts amid the housing crisis across the country have shifted many construction-worker families from affluence to poverty, or at best, survival mode. It’s difficult to believe that home construction industry will ever see boom years again. For that matter, there’s no reason to suspect that vehicle manufacturing will ever return to a glorious era of unthinking tunnel vision, or that two-inch-thick newspapers will ever again grace the breakfast table of every American home.
How do long term unemployment sufferers get by?
They sell off cars, get rid of extra phones, cancel health club memberships, and bid vacations farewell. They scrounge for any income they can find. Most workers who qualify for unemployment pay receive about 60% of their former wages, but unless Congress extends their benefits, they expire after 26 weeks. But even unemployment benefit extensions eventually expire, at which point people may become eligible for welfare benefits and food stamps. A family of four might get $ 900 monthly, which can’t cover even basic costs like food, housing, and health care. From there, without family or friends to help, it’s a short jump to soup kitchens and private charities. Those experiencing long term unemployment face prospects that are grim.
Will new jobs be created?
It’s an unanswered question. Some politicians are anxious to spend more to salvage shrinking industries, but that’s more of a stop-gap than anything. And there is talk of replacing shrinking industries like vehicle manufacturing with “green” industries that will create a new economic boom, but turning such talk into reality would require billions in private or government investments as well as more years than today’s unemployed population can even hope to live. Not all displaced workers can learn new skills quickly. And even for those who can, chances are good that they won’t be returning to any semblance of their former pay. This is especially true for older workers or those who have extensive experience in specialized fields.
Will current job losses become permanent?
It is a sad thing to admit that many people who have lost jobs in the past year or two may never return to their former occupations or ever again reach their former income levels, but there seems to be no immediate way to avoid such a conclusion. Barring the unforeseeable, like a whole new economy arising, we are likely to have an unprecedented recessionary shift to permanent job losses.
Gold Closes the Week Above $1,000 Per Ounce
This is historic. For the first time ever, gold has put in a weekly close in excess of $1,000.00 per ounce.
I recall my old finance professor at Washington University in St. Louis telling our group of eager business majors to watch the gold price because it is always telling your something. He also said that typically governments would prefer everyone ignore the price of gold. That was back in 1977. So what is gold telling us now?
Now there’s a question that stirs up all sorts of debate. At the risk of getting into the middle of it, I will offer as my opinion that the price of gold is telling us the following:
• Vital parts of the economy – especially the banking industry and various derivative instruments – are not fixed.
• Price inflation is a real possibility at some not too distant point.
• Foreign governments that are large holders of U. S. financial assets (as in China, among others) are displeased with the way the U. S. Government is managing its financial affairs and may be considering unilateral economic actions. (Note that China recently admonished its citizens to start stocking up on gold. Why do you think that is?)
• There is a general nervousness about the solvency of financial institutions.
• People are learning to read charts and have noticed the general direction of gold bullion prices over the past several years.
• There is a sense that geopolitics remain very unstable.
Now what you do with this information, if anything, is entirely your business. And, anyway, those are just my opinions and observations.
The only thing I might suggest is that you heed the words of my old finance prof, and just keep an eye on the royal metal and try to hear what it’s telling you.
Craig Bennett
