To a large degree, Americans are living off the legacy of our former small-government, free-market, capitalist economy which was the engine that provided the growing standard of living Americans used to experience and today’s Americans seem to expect.  I say former, because we have anything but that anymore.  The central government attempts to regulate the production of wealth while producing no wealth whatsoever.  Its main products are regulations, failed programs, and aggressive foreign wars.  None of these have a positive impact on the wealth of this nation, and I believe that the “military-industrial complex” that President Eisenhower warned us about might be the most destructive factor of all.  Anyway, given his military experience he sure should have known all about it.  War is horribly expensive, and as we’ve seen, once we get into one the attitude becomes one of “we must have victory so we have to spend whatever is necessary to achieve it.”  Sounds like a path to national bankruptcy.  Imagine what could have been done with the money we’ve spent on these wars.  And that doesn’t even include the social costs to individuals and families.

In any event, “downsizing” on a personal level is going to be the new in thing, whether we like it or not.  An ever increasing standard of living comes from private savings and investment, hard work, and a political environment created by a government that does not act like business growth will continue regardless of what the government might choose to do to impede it.  To the degree those things are absent, so also will growing personal wealth be outside our grasp.  One doesn’t have to like the laws of economics, and one can employ the services of those with flawed views to get the answers one wants, but the facts remain the same.

Here’s what’s going on.  The private sector is not creating jobs in any way that  indicates an economic recovery is underway.  And, as I pointed out in a post some months ago, figuring unemployment is a tricky job, and one that offers enormous opportunities to both  make errors and to deliberately distort the figures for political and other purposes.

Take for example the part of  the report that stated that 625,000 people gave up looking for a job.  Let’s suppose that number is accurate.  Since they are no longer looking for a job, they are not considered unemployed anymore.  That reduces the size of the labor pool which works to reduce the unemployment rate.  So having over a half a million folks give up looking for jobs makes the unemployment rate look better.  Suppose those half a million folks had found jobs instead of giving up.  They would no longer be considered unemployed.  So regardless of whether people get discouraged and give up looking for jobs or whether they actually find jobs, are we to understand that either event has basically the same effect on the unemployment rate?  Does that make sense?  Do you really want to base decisions on data like that?

This economy is far from out of the woods, and it won’t be until there is robust and sustainable growth in the private sector.  When that happens we’ll see a real drop in the unemployment rate, not one spuriously induced by questionable statistical methods.

Certainly, the U. S. Government is bust. There can be no way it might fulfill its guarantees to future generations of Americans regarding health care and old-age pensions, let alone sustain its military presence around the world. And I’ve not yet mentioned the cost of servicing the nation’s debt – never mind paying some of it back which isn’t even on the radar screen. When I claimed the government can’t do it, I meant that. Not even with raising taxation.

It truly is bankrupt and it maintains itself by its power (until now) to borrow from foreigners as well as to create dollars out of nothing in order to make payments on its obligations. Once the first goes, the next will go, as people say, “to the moon.” The consequences of practically limitless money creation by the Federal Reserve to meet the financing requirements of the central government will be disastrous. Plan for it like your future will depend on it, because it does.

If you’re planning your retirement centered on the supposition that you will receive the same government benefits in your old age that your mother and father did, you’re in for a ugly disappointment. For you, and millions like you, retirement will be repealed.

Get busy yesterday.

In the US there are over 1.2 million charities and other nonprofits hoping to reach their financial goals this year. Unfortunately, due to the recession many are predicted to fall short. More than 93% of nonprofits are experiencing notable declines in charitable donations. The Bridgespan Group, a nonprofit consultancy organization, says that not only is private funding drying up, so are many others.

The Salvation Army suffers

Everyone has seen them on street corners and in front of businesses. The Jolly Santa rings the Salvation Army bell, hoping to get a donation. Even the Salvation Army is facing a shortfall. Typically, Thanksgiving through to Christmas is the peak time of the year for the charity. Major George Hood, Chief Communications Officer for the Salvation Army, said, “Fundraising is very difficult in this economy, yet we know that there are people suffering in all 50 states.”

Since the recession, spending has declined drastically. A shortage of people traveling the streets to buy, means a shortage of people passing by the red-kettle ringers. Hood continued, “That impulsive giving can be jeopardized if there is no foot traffic in malls. We are in a difficult economic spot. We have to be prepared for it. All we can do it get out there and do what we do and know that the American public has never let us down.”

Service organizations suffer

Another sector braced for a lack of funding is service organizations. Karen Pushaw, director of a soup kitchen in Philadelphia, said, “More people are seeking services at the same time as fewer people are able to contribute.” Service organizations are expected less funding, along with increased demand for help from those without. One facility in New York City called Nazareth Housing, a 58-bed homeless shelter, has been operating at full capacity since June of this year.

The organization does not expect to meet its budget, but has a “no one turned away” policy that presses them to stay open until there is no room available. Executive Director Michael Callaghan said, “There are a variety of fiscal stresses on nonprofits. Smaller non-profits are failing, or they’re crippled and unable to continue their efforts. We are going to see more people go out of business, which will add to unemployment and leave gaps in services.”

When will charities and service organizations mend?

Industry experts are studying the past, to see what to expect. In the Great Depression it took three to four years for charitable giving to return to normal. The analysts and experts aren’t ALL doom and gloom – since the per capita income has risen since the 40s, the recovery could be a lot quicker. The recession crippled businesses and organizations, but hope of a recovery is stronger now than it was previously. It’s likely that service organizations and charities will get closer to normal once the economy turns around.

We are all aware that money is tight for a lot of people these days, but somehow when the actual statistics come out it can still be quite shocking. A recent article by the Associated Press reports that over 20 million people in the US received unemployment benefits over the year 2009. The unemployment rate for the year reached a whopping 10 percent. It is easy to see why sales of many products are way down when one in every 10 people is out of a job.

It has been a Drawn out Struggle for Some

While there are not as many workers being laid off or let go as there were in recent months, many employers are still reluctant to re-hire until they see a dramatic upturn in the economy. Some who have lost jobs have been fortunate and found work again, even though some of them find themselves in new jobs that aren’t optimal. Lifestyle adjustments are often required, and people who have taken on casual jobs just to stay employed should feel lucky to find work at all. Among those that are jobless, 5.8 million were unemployed for over six months. This circumstance can take a toll not only on the pocketbook, but also on a person’s pride.

The Vicious Cycle

With so many people out of work or working low paying jobs, there is little money being spent. Businesses relying on sales of some sort are struggling to get customers. They can’t hire any more people, because they can’t make enough money to pay them, and they are forced to keep an eye on longevity instead of hiring a few more people in the here and now. Also, the government stimuli are beginning to run out, so there is less money for businesses to work with. Consumers are unable to spend, and companies are unable to hire, which makes the economic crisis geared for a longer period of time.

Just how Long will the Crisis Last?

The unemployment rate is showing signs of declining, but not at a speed that most of us would like to see. Experts are estimating that within a year’s time the rate will be above 9 percent, slightly down from the current 10 percent. With such a scarce job market the government has been forced to extend the term of unemployment benefits beyond the usual 26 weeks several times in 2009 and will likely have to continue to do so, otherwise millions of people will be left with even less to spend.

Job Competition is Fierce

If you are one of the many Americans who is unemployed and looking for work the odds are definitely not great. It is estimated that for every open job there are six unemployed candidates. There obviously are other people to consider. This doesn’t include people that are employed but looking for full time or better paying opportunities.

Try to Remain Positive

It can be tough to stay optimistic is such trying times. Taking a casual job can be humbling, but take comfort in that you are at least working. Try to think outside the box. If you have skills for freelance work, this is a good time to put them to use. Companies are far more likely to offer freelancers work than regular employees in tougher times. The internet has a lot of opportunities open online.

Today, the unemployed sector cuts through a very broad cross-section of the country. Since late 2007, some 8 million jobs have vanished, and the end is not yet in sight. The ranks of the unemployed have now swelled to nearly 16 million people.

In the past, recessions have mostly hit blue collar and low level retail jobs, and white collar layoffs accounted for about 30 percent of job losses. By contrast, the current recession has seen 50% of the lost jobs be from managerial, professional, and skilled white collar positions. Workers in the upper echelons that are scrambling for cash now, the current recession has changed the world overnight.

Who has been hardest hit?

Past recessions hit minorities the hardest, and this hasn’t changed. According to current Labor Department statistics, the nationwide unemployment rate in November was 10%, but joblessness among African-Americans, for example, was 15.5%. Interestingly enough, the unemployment rate for men is 11.9%, compared to 8.1% for women, the widest unemployment gender gap in more than half a century. Older workers are being laid off at a faster rate than younger workers.

Are unemployed people finding new jobs?

The unemployed are staying that way for unusually long stretches of time. Almost 25% of jobless people have been unemployed for over 6 months, the highest long term unemployment level since the Great Depression. That 25% long term unemployment figure doesn’t include “discouraged workers” – people who have given up, and those who have settled for part time work. In hard-hit regions of the country, long stretches of joblessness coincide with elevated suicide rates, mounting depression, and family conflicts.

But aren’t layoffs cyclical in a recession?

In most recessions, job losses are from temporary contractions from industries and bussines producing more goods and services than can be absorbed. Losses, therefore are cyclical in nature. Typically, businesses lay off employees until demand picks back up, and then start hiring again. The current economic downturn, however, is more foundational; that is, some industrial segments appear to have undergone permanent shrinkage – home construction, vehicle manufacturing, and newsprint publishing, for example.

New-home construction busts amid the housing crisis across the country have shifted many construction-worker families from affluence to poverty, or at best, survival mode. It’s difficult to believe that home construction industry will ever see boom years again. For that matter, there’s no reason to suspect that vehicle manufacturing will ever return to a glorious era of unthinking tunnel vision, or that two-inch-thick newspapers will ever again grace the breakfast table of every American home.

How do long term unemployment sufferers get by?

They sell off cars, get rid of extra phones, cancel health club memberships, and bid vacations farewell. They scrounge for any income they can find. Most workers who qualify for unemployment pay receive about 60% of their former wages, but unless Congress extends their benefits, they expire after 26 weeks. But even unemployment benefit extensions eventually expire, at which point people may become eligible for welfare benefits and food stamps. A family of four might get $ 900 monthly, which can’t cover even basic costs like food, housing, and health care. From there, without family or friends to help, it’s a short jump to soup kitchens and private charities. Those experiencing long term unemployment face prospects that are grim.

Will new jobs be created?

It’s an unanswered question. Some politicians are anxious to spend more to salvage shrinking industries, but that’s more of a stop-gap than anything. And there is talk of replacing shrinking industries like vehicle manufacturing with “green” industries that will create a new economic boom, but turning such talk into reality would require billions in private or government investments as well as more years than today’s unemployed population can even hope to live. Not all displaced workers can learn new skills quickly. And even for those who can, chances are good that they won’t be returning to any semblance of their former pay. This is especially true for older workers or those who have extensive experience in specialized fields.

Will current job losses become permanent?

It is a sad thing to admit that many people who have lost jobs in the past year or two may never return to their former occupations or ever again reach their former income levels, but there seems to be no immediate way to avoid such a conclusion. Barring the unforeseeable, like a whole new economy arising, we are likely to have an unprecedented recessionary shift to permanent job losses.

Warren Buffet seems to believe that, despite what other experts are saying, consumers won’t find debt relief any time in the near future.

“Everything I see about the economy is that we have had no bounce,” according to Buffet. “There were a lot of excesses to be wrung out and that process is still underway and it looks to me that it will be underway for quite a while. In the annual report I said that that economy would be in shambles this year and probably well beyond, and I think that is true.”

Buffet claims the biggest contributor to the lagging economy will be unemployment. Buffet believes that this unemployment spike will continue to “depress consumer demand for everything from energy to cars and homes.” Unfortunately, a lot of the economic turmoil is hinged on consumers’ spending again. The signs are that this is unlikely.

The economic turnaround

Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, has cited nascent signs of economic recovery abounding throughout the market. He has been a strong proponent of consumer anticipation of better times on the horizon. However, Buffet’s argument is based on some telling facts about the market. The decline in home building dashed many hopes that the economy and credit industry turned around enough to once again push people to start buying big ticket items.

Buffet claims that debt relief for the masses is a long way off because of the seemingly unstoppable unemployment rate. “It looks like we’re going to need more medicine, not less,” he stated recently, implying that the country will need a second stimulus if it is ever to recover.

Cautions for the future

Despite some changes and government intercession, Buffet claims that more is needed. He also believes that the stimulus and programs the government has already introduced will impact the economy in adverse ways. “We have done things that raise the probability of high rates of inflation at some point,” he adds. He said that some of the government’s actions were necessary, but could drive down the value of the dollar to record lows.

People’s futures

So people are left to wait it out and see what results the stimulus really will bring. Many people have seen the fall of large corporations and bankruptcy filings by huge companies. They take this as signs to be cautious about their own finances, and make do as opposed to going out and buying again. However, everyone agrees that consumer buying is key to true economic resurgence. Without confidence in the market, spending on large purchases seems imprudent, and buying a house is not exactly like buying a candy bar. Consumers are opting to go without rather than stretch budgets in murky waters.

Despite Buffet’s words

Despite what Warren Buffet is professing to the public, people are going to have to make their own judgments on what their future holds. They’ll have to be vigilant with finances to get debt relief, and still have room to save for retirement, college, and emergencies. All in all, only time will determine how well the economy will recover, and what it will be like when it does.

Whereas, it is true that many of these jobs leave the country because of the low pay of employees in other countries, a good bit of the problem actually resides on the union’s shoulders for their manipulation in our political landscape. The reality is that it’s time for the American workers to stop blaming China, and help improve the efficiency of the corporations they work for, work harder, and demand less.

What if your arm was a state which grew a large percentage of the crops for our nation? And what if it wasn’t getting the right flow of money, or the banking system was not working in that region of our country? The farmers cannot get the money they need to deliver the crops, and therefore, the nation wouldn’t do as well either.

I can not say it any better than Elizabeth Warren has. She concludes her Huffington Post article with these cautionary words: “America today has plenty of rich and super-rich. But it has far more families who did all the right things, but who still have no real security. Going to college and finding a good job no longer guarantee economic safety. Paying for a child’s education and setting aside enough for a decent retirement have become distant dreams. Tens of millions of once-secure middle class families now live paycheck to paycheck, watching as their debts pile up and worrying about whether a pink slip or a bad diagnosis will send them hurtling over an economic cliff. America without a strong middle class? Unthinkable, but the once-solid foundation is shaking.”

I saw a very interesting piece online recently that only half-jokingly called for Ms. Warren to become our next president. No one I know of has spoken truth-to-power more loudly and more consistently over the years as she has. Elizabeth Warren for President? Not a bad idea. Not a bad idea at all!

Resource Author Francisco Rodriguez H.
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One of the scams that are very common today is fake e-mails that appear to originate from eBay or PayPal or even your bank. Keep in mind that anybody can spoof any e-mail address and send an e-mail that appears to be from somebody else. It is even possible to spoof an e-mail coming from the president of the United States. So when you see any e-mail in your inbox that comes from eBay or PayPal and asks you to log in to confirm your password the chances are that this is a scam. E-mails that you receive of this type will have eBay letterheads or PayPal letterheads and will direct you to a link that appears to be eBay or PayPal. However, if you look closely at the bottom of your browser you’ll generally see that the domain these links point to is not actually an eBay or PayPal domain. It just looks like eBay’s web site, but it is actually a scam site asking you to confirm your password.

One of the easiest ways to protect yourself on eBay is to use PayPal for all transactions. PayPal is a wholly-owned subsidiary of eBay, and so transactions that are paid for via PayPal can be easily disputed. Since it is in eBay’s interest to maintain a secure shopping environment they are generally very quick to resolve disputes that originate by PayPal. If you buy an item and are not satisfied with it and feel like the seller did not deliver what he promised, it is far easier to dispute that transaction fee with PayPal because eBay can reverse the funds themselves. If you purchased by money order or credit card or some other payment method, eBay does not have the opportunity to reverse charges without going through a third-party.

Whether you are buying or selling items is a good idea to stick with PayPal. If you are selling items it is a good idea to only except PayPal as a payment option. The last thing you need is to get a bad check, or have your buyer dispute his credit card charge. If you have fulfilled your end of the seller’s bargain, then all you’ll need to do is prove that to PayPal and eBay without involving a third-party. Generally speaking, if a buyer is unhappy with a product that you sold and does not consider the product to be in the condition advertised, then you should demand that the product be returned before you issue a refund.

The author is a roofer and he also offers tips for contact lenses online and buy contact lenses.

First, all governments and administrations prefer that the economic numbers published reflect positively on their actions and policies. So they desire that the statistics look good – or not as bad as they could be – or that they are improving.

Second, this can be accomplished through a number of means. One is to just lie. Let’s assume that’s not what’s going on. Another way to get better numbers is to adjust the way the statistics are calculated. It’s hard to imagine that is not what’s going on. Am I suggesting that the unemployment numbers are probably worse than what the official government statistics are reporting? Yes.

Keep in mind that just defining whether someone is unemployed or not is problematic. Quick quiz – which of these people should be considered as unemployed?

- Sally graduated from college six years ago and has worked in accounting at a bank with increasing responsibilities ever since. The bank fails and she loses her job. Should she be considered as unemployed?

- Six months later Sally is still looking for a job and moves back in with her parents because she’s broke. Should she be considered as unemployed?

- One year later Sally gives up on a career in accounting and takes a job as a server at a restaurant. Should she be considered as unemployed?

- Bob, an engineer, has been out of work for six months and has been unsuccessfully looking for a job in engineering. He has been staying home with the young kids as his wife pursues her career in financial management so they can get rid of daycare expenses. Should he be considered as unemployed?

- Bob gives up looking for a job and decides to stay home with the kids for good. They cut their family expenses. Should he be considered as unemployed?

Okay, perhaps that was a bit long, but it does illustrate the problem. Defining who is and who is not unemployed is not a straightforward proposition. And even if it were, you have the challenge of drawing a representative sample since you cannot call everyone up and see who’s employed and who is not.

Therein lies one opportunity for “massaging” the statistics. Some economists such as John Williams for “Shadow Government Statistics” have made career out of scrutinizing government economic reporting and methodology and are convinced that such numbers are calculated in a very different way now than they were in 1980, for example. Mr. Williams has the unemployment number around 20%. Could he be right? Perhaps.

What’s my point?

1 – Be very careful attaching a great deal of significance to economic reporting, especially month to month numbers.

2 – We all have responsibilities – to our families and to ourselves. Whatever numbers come down the chute – accurate or not – we need to executive those responsibilities. From a financial standpoint that means planning, budgeting, and perhaps looking for additional income sources as a resource against an economy in trouble. And that’s what we’re here for!

Best wishes in 2010.

Craig